The biggest decrease in the rural population is expected in Kostanay, Abai and North Kazakhstan regions
Experts of the research and forecast department of the labor resources development center released a demographic forecast based on birth, mortality and migration rates, Kazinform News Agency reports.
The urban population of Kazakhstan is projected to rise by 13% by 2030 to 14 million people and jump by 57% by 2050 to reach 19.3 million people. At the same time up to 7.7 million people will live in rural areas by 2030 only 1% up and 8.2 million by 2050.
The demographic projections are based on the 2401 scenarios divided into two categories the basic and analytical. The basic part includes seven unified scenarios, including basic low, medium and high models, director of the research and forecast department Dmitry Shumekov said.
According to the basic scenario, the urban population will grow most in Astana by 538,300 people or 39% to hit 1.9 million by 2030, in Almaty by 469,300 people or 21% to 2,664,000 people, in Shymkent by 209,600 people or 17% to 1,416,000. Thereat the population of three megacities will constitute 43% of the total urban population of Kazakhstan and rise up to 51% by 2050.
By regions, the highest urban population growth will be recorded in Mangistau region with 79,200 people, by 70,300 in Aktobe region, and by 62,4000in Turkistan. At the same time, urban population in East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions may shrink.
The rural population is predicted to increase in five regions in particular by 140,800 in Almaty region, 94,700 in Turkistan region, by 58,100 in Mangistau, by 26,000 in Kyzylorda region and 21,500 in Atyrau region by 2030 as compared to 2023.
The biggest decrease in the rural population is expected in Kostanay, Abai and North Kazakhstan regions by 37,100, 35,200 and 33,800 people correspondingly.
In addition, Mangistau region is projected to lead in the urban population growth by 2050. 736,600 people will live in the cities of the region that is 384,000 or 2.1 times more against 2023. The urban population will also jump by 1.7 times in Turkistan region to reach 878,700. Up to 1 million people are expected to reside in the cities of Aktobe region, 44% up as compared to 2023. The urban population is reported to decrease in Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and North Kazakhstan regions by 7%, 6% and 5% respectively.
The rural population will rise in the southern and western regions of Kazakhstan. The population will grow by 658,000 people up to 1,931,000 that is 52% more compared to 2023. The population living in rural areas in Turkistan region will increase by 495,200 people to stand at 2,102,000. Mangistau region will also record a growth in rural population to make 709,000 by 2050 that is 284,700 more as compared to 2023.
The biggest reduction of the rural population is predicted in Kostanay region by 163,600 to 151,700 people that is 52% less against 2023.
As previously stated as of November 1 the population of Kazakhstan grew by 210,139 people since the beginning of the year to reach 20, 243,981 people.
Photo credit: akimat of Astana.
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